This Week’s Economic Calendar
The previous week witnessed an upward repricing on the indexes due to imbalances and liquidity left behind in the last expansion phase of price delivery. After trading down into logical discount arrays, we can expect a retracement into the range. On the other hand, the US dollar remained in a range inside its weekly FVG, with an expansion on Friday closing out the week bullishly.
The new week brings forth important reports, with the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report on Friday taking the spotlight, emphasizing the need for meticulous trading and tight risk management.
Please note that this is not financial advice.*
Monday:
Given that it’s the first day of the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) week, combined with the start of a new month and a Monday, it’s crucial to exercise patience and manage expectations. The recommendation is to wait for the 9:30 opening and then focus on identifying the most probable higher timeframe draw on liquidity around the 10 am silver bullet.
Tuesday:
Red and medium folder drivers are scheduled from 8:30 am until 10 am, coinciding with the silver bullet hour, which is expected to inject volatility into the markets. Consequently, the day is anticipated to present optimal trading opportunities. It will be ideal for traders to consider the 10-11 am Silver Bullet session and the PM session for higher probability trades.
Wednesday:
Red and medium folder news drivers are expected to flood the market in the AM session, starting as early as 8:15 AM. These news events will likely serve as volatility injections into the markets. However, it’s important to note that the FOMC rates and press conference are scheduled for later in the day, likely leading to consolidation leading up to this event. During the event, there may be times of volatility and whipsaws in the market. Traders, especially those who are not experienced, are advised to manage their expectations heavily on this day. It’s recommended to focus on the 7-8 am Silver Bullet—or after 2:30 if you have the experience to navigate the heightened volatility.
Thursday:
Highlighted as the day before the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, it tends to exhibit high resistance and low probability. Traders are advised to exercise caution, particularly if they lack experience. On this day, there is a red folder news driver scheduled for 8:30 AM, which is expected to inject volatility into the marketplace. If traders opt to participate on this day, they should recognize that it’s a lower probability trading day.
Friday:
Marked by the anticipation of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) numbers, there is an expectation of heightened volatility in the markets following the release of this high-impact news, potentially offering optimal trading opportunities. However, it’s important to note that trading ahead of such high-impact news is not recommended due to increased uncertainty and risk. Instead, traders are advised to wait and observe the liquidity and inefficiencies that unfold after the news release. For higher probability setups, consideration can be given to trading during the 10-11 AM Silver Bullet or the PM session.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders to anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week revolves around earnings reports, with several large-cap institutions scheduled to release theirs. Traders should expect volatility and potential consolidation ahead of these reports.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The previous week on the US dollar witnessed a small range, where we retraced into the weekly FVG unable to reach its CE, signifying strength. The US dollar remains bullish with the structure in place. An analysis of the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, with a focus on commercials engaged in hedging activities, indicates that commercials maintain a net long position. The data released on Friday reaffirms this stance once more, consistent with previous weeks, showing that commercial entities, including institutions and hedgers, continue to hold more long than short positions in the market. This is yet another confirmation of an anticipation of higher prices in the longer term, a trend observable as the weeks progress.
What does this signify for us as traders? The alignment of technical and fundamental factors makes for relatively easy trading, providing directional bias and clarity. The US dollar, according to this analysis, remains bullish into the nearest future, until prevailing market structure and changes in order flow prove otherwise moving forward.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wiseley
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
