This Week’s Economic Calendar
International politics, trade tensions, and global uncertainty have all been reflected in the recent aggressive price delivery of the U.S. dollar, which has now traded below last year’s lows, taking out fund-level sell stops beneath those lows in an expansion market profile.
With downside targets now met, how the market trades below these lows will offer critical insight into the next expansion leg of price delivery. This will be closely monitored moving forward.
Looking Ahead: Key Events This Week
This week is data-heavy, with heightened volatility expected around:
–Fed Chair Powell’s Speech – Wednesday, 1:30 AM EST
–Unemployment Claims – Thursday, 8:30 AM EST
Traders should remain alert and prepared to capitalize on high-probability opportunities that emerge at time-of-day, especially when aligned with a higher timeframe draw on liquidity.
Please note that this is not financial advice.
Monday:
Given that it’s the first trading day following a large range week, which delivered several downside targets on the Us dollar, and a Monday, patience and managed expectations are key. With no significant economic news driver expected to inject volatility into the markets; I recommend looking for opportunities pre-market, if the market structure suggests its high-probability, or during the Opening Range (9:30-10:00 AM)—focusing on identifying the most probable higher-timeframe draw on liquidity and capitalizing on the volatility near the 9:30 opening bell, if a setup presents itself.
Tuesday:
Volatility injection is anticipated in the AM session at 8:30 am, facilitated by a medium-impact news driver expected to inject volatility. This will likely provide easy price runs into higher time frame algorithmic reference points, presenting optimal trading opportunities. Traders are advised to focus on the AM session beginning at 9:30 and the PM session for higher probability trade setups.
Wednesday:
Heightened market volatility is expected in the PM session, driven by the Fed Chair Powell’s speech, scheduled for 1.30 PM, likely leading to consolidation ahead of the event, followed by potential periods of heightened volatility and whipsaws during his speech. Traders, especially those who are not experienced, are strongly advised to manage their expectations. Focus is recommended on the 7–8 AM Silver Bullet setup or, for those experienced of handling the increased volatility, a setup in the silver bullet and last hour of trading.
Thursday:
Expect heightened market volatility at 8:30 AM due to the impact of a Red folder news driver, providing price runs to algorithmic reference points at this time. Traders are advised to focus on the AM session beginning at 9:30 AM, as well as the PM session, for high-probability trade setups aligned with institutional price delivery.
Friday:
Today presents no significant news drivers expected to inject volatility into the markets. If you haven’t met your weekly profit objectives, focus on the premarket trading hours or allow the opening range (9:30-10:00 AM) to develop, then focus on identifying the most probable higher time frame draw on liquidity during the 10 AM Silver Bullet or the PM session, should a suitable setup present itself.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders: anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week revolves around earnings reports from several major large-cap institutions, with key releases to watch including
- M&T Bank (MTB)
- Citigroup (C)
- PNC Financial (PNC)
- IBM (IBM)
- ASML (ASML)
- Netflix (NFLX)
- CSX Corporation (CSX)
- Morgan Stanley (MS)
- Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
- Truist Financial (TFC)
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)
- Regions Financial (RF)
- CarMax (KMX)
- Fastenal (FAST)
- Travelers (TRV)
These reports are expected to inject significant volatility into the market, with a high likelihood of consolidation leading up to the announcements—particularly given the diverse range of sectors represented.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The Previous Week in Review
As discussed in last week’s newsletter, the bias remained bearish. The previous week delivered targets below market price with speed and large range expansions, attacking fund-level stops and facilitating smart money distribution within a market maker sell model in a sell program.
Now that those targets have been met—and with key liquidity (last year’s lows) swept, how we trade beneath those lows will determine the setup for the next expansion leg.
For yet another week, commercials continue to load heavy long hedges while reducing their previously aggressive short positions, as shown in the latest COT data released to the public on Friday.
On an algorithmic level, the new lows created to the downside now serve as accumulation for smart money preparing for the next expansion leg in price. The discrepancy between the fundamentals and technicals remains and will continue to be monitored as we move forward.
What Does This Signify for Us as Traders?
Key liquidity (i.e., previous year’s lows) has been swept. Focus now shifts to the new lows created in the discount of the dealing range, and how we trade around them. We’ll be watching for any signs of smart money reversal in line with commercial positioning. This week will be used to gather intel based on how the market trades below this major sell-side liquidity taken out. Until a clear break of structure can be seen, validated by institutional order flow—we remain bearish.
Seasonal Tendencies
The US Dollar
As observed in March, an intermediate-term high was priced in, which led to the explosive downside move we anticipated, guided by seasonal data. In the same way, we may now begin to anticipate the formation of a new intermediate-term low, likely to be priced in later in April into May, setting the stage for a potential explosive upside repricing in the latter part of 2025—if confirmed by institutional order flow, in line with historical seasonal tendencies.
This is not a call for a bottom in the U.S. dollar. Seasonal expectations mean nothing without confirmation by market structure and order flow. However, key fundamentals are starting to align with this view:
- Interest rate dynamics are shifting bullish
- Seasonal tendencies favor smart money accumulation
- COT report indicates a shift in commercial positioning
Until Then:
Unless we see confirmation through institutional order flow, including the pricing in of an intermediate-term low and a clear break in structure to the upside, we remain bearish on the U.S. dollar.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wisely.
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
