This Week’s Economic Calendar
The recent week witnessed consolidating indexes after reaching all-time highs and a bullish close on the US dollar. We are beginning to see market symmetry in the intermarket analysis with T-bonds dropping, Yields higher, strength in the dollar (DXY), and weakness in stock indices. This synchronization in the market is essential for sided clean, directional price runs, as covered extensively in our Sunday pre-market analysis on Youtube.
The new week brings forth important reports, with the FOMC rates and press conference in the spotlight.
Please note that this is not financial advice.*
Monday:
On a day devoid of significant news drivers, especially on a Monday, it’s crucial to exercise patience and manage expectations. The recommendation is to wait for the 9:30 opening and then focus on identifying the most probable higher timeframe draw on liquidity around the 10 am silver bullet.
Tuesday:
Highlighted as the day before the FOMC rate announcement, it tends to exhibit high resistance and low probability. On this day, a medium-impact news driver is scheduled at 8:30 AM, which can create a price run. If traders choose to participate on this day ahead of FOMC, they should manage expectations accordingly.
Wednesday:
Marked by the anticipation of the FOMC rate announcement and press conference in the pm session, traders, especially those who are not experienced, are advised to manage their expectations on this day heavily. It’s recommended to focus on the 7-8 am Silver bullet—or after 2:30 if you have the experience to navigate the heightened volatility.
Thursday:
This brings forth medium and high-impact news drivers, starting as early as 8:30 AM and spanning until 10 am, injecting volatility into the marketplace and presenting potential opportunities in both the AM and PM sessions.
Friday:
On this day, we have Fed Chair Powell speaking at 9 am, which is expected to inject volatility into the marketplace. If traders choose to participate on this day, they should understand it’s lower probability trading the AM session, rather focus should be on the Pm session for higher probability trades.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders to anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week revolves around earnings reports, with several large-cap institutions scheduled to release theirs. Specifically, FEDEX, LANTERN PHARMA, and EMBRAER are in focus this week, and traders should expect volatility and potential consolidation in the lead-up to these reports.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The previous week saw an up closing candle on the US dollar across both the weekly and daily time frames. Analysis of the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, with a particular focus on commercials engaged in hedging activities, shows that commercials closed out substantial long positions. This led to a reduction in open interest, as depicted on the line graph above. Despite this, we remain above the 50% level, indicating that they remain net long. However, going forward, we must monitor whether they will initiate accumulation of new long positions or continue reducing their existing positions.
What does this signify for us as traders? While commercials remain net long, the recent reduction in open interest suggests that we need more insight from the report to understand their next stance. Currently, we are waiting for a bullish on DXY from a technical and fundamental standpoint, with bonds and COT both indicating strength.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wisely.
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
