This Week’s Economic Calendar
After weeks of extended losses in the U.S. stock market, over $1 trillion was gained into the close of the previous week, with strength reflected across the board.
This can be easily explained by the fact that the indices already reached downside targets, where a retracement into premium levels for smart money accumulation can be expected after an expansion, setting the stage for the next expansion leg of price delivery.
Looking Ahead:
This week is data-heavy, with the spotlight on the FOMC rate announcement scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM.
Expect heightened volatility all week long, especially around these news events, and be prepared to capitalize on high-probability opportunities that emerge at time of day within a higher timeframe draw.
Please note that this is not financial advice.
Monday:
Given that it’s the first trading day post-CPI and a Monday, it’s crucial to exercise patience and manage expectations.Red and medium-folder news drivers at 8:30 AM are expected to inject volatility, providing price runs to algorithmic reference points at this time.
The recommendation is to focus on the AM session starting at 9:30 AM, leading into the Silver Bullet hour, and the PM session for higher-probability trade setups.
Tuesday:
With no significant economic news driver expected to inject volatility pre-FOMC rate release—a high-impact news event—expectations are being managed accordingly into an anticipated difficult AM session.I recommend looking for opportunities pre-market if the market structure suggests it’s high-probability, or during the Opening Range (9:30–10:00 AM)—focusing on identifying the most probable higher-timeframe draw on liquidity and capitalizing on the volatility near the 9:30 opening bell for higher-probability trades, if a setup presents itself.
Wednesday:
Heightened market volatility is expected in the PM session, driven by the FOMC rates and press conference scheduled between 2-2:30 PM, likely leading to consolidation ahead of the event. During the event, there may be periods of heightened volatility and whipsaws in the market.Traders, especially those with less experience, should manage expectations carefully. The recommended focus should be on looking for opportunities pre-market if the market structure suggests its high-probability, or, for those experienced enough to handle increased volatility, consider setups post-2:30 PM after the FOMC event.
Thursday:
Expect heightened market volatility between 8:30 AM and 10 AM due to the impact of Red and medium-folder news drivers expected to flood the market in the AM session. Traders are advised to focus on the AM Session beginning at 9:30 and the PM session for high-probability trade setups.
Friday:
Today presents no significant news drivers expected to inject volatility into the markets. If you haven’t met your weekly profit objectives, focus on the premarket trading hours or allow the opening range (9:30-10:00 AM) to develop, then focus on identifying the most probable higher time frame draw on liquidity during the 10 AM Silver Bullet or the PM session, should a suitable setup present itself.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders: anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week revolves around earnings reports from several major large-cap institutions. Key releases to watch include:
- RF
- HIS
- NIKE
- FedEx
- NIO
These reports are expected to inject significant market volatility, with a likelihood of consolidation leading up to the announcements—especially given the diverse range of sectors represented.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The Previous Week in Review
After a large-range week, a small-range week can be expected, as seen on the US dollar in the previous week—remaining in a range for the most part.
Into the new week, everything points bearish, with any retracement into premium inefficiencies to offer smart money fair value to accumulate new positions for the next expansion leg to the downside—until proven otherwise.
According to the just-released COT report, commercials are once again loading up on heavy short hedges and reducing longs. For yet another week, this serves as a clear indication of a bearish US dollar to be expected in the near to longer term.
What does this signify for us as traders?
For yet another week, every retracement into an imbalance becomes an institutional reference point for smart money to accumulate new short positions.
Going into the new week, we remain bearish, with 102.25 and 101.30 as intermediate downside targets we want to see delivered.
Seasonal Tendencies
The US Dollar
Seasonal tendencies for the month of March indicate an expectation of a bearish, down-close monthly candle, with the intermediate-term high already being priced in early in the month—further refining and validating this bearish premise and bias.
Into the new week, barring any shift within institutional order flow, the top-down focus remains on lower prices, looking for discount targets to be delivered to as a draw for smart money distribution.
We remain bearish.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wisely.
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
