This Week’s Economic Calendar
The U.S. stock market continues to extend its losses for yet another week, shedding over $1.15 trillion in the previous week. This marks the expansion leg of price delivery and signals the participation of smart money in the current market environment.
With discount targets expected to be repriced into with speed, if institutional order flow remains bearish, these large ranges we’ve seen are just the beginning. Expect even larger ranges moving forward, creating intraday low-resistance price runs into higher timeframe targets.
Important Notice:
The Daylight Savings shift took place today, Sunday, March 9, 2025, at 3 AM. Kindly take note of the time changes to avoid confusion in trade setups and positioning.
Looking Ahead:
This week is data-heavy, with:
- CPI numbers scheduled for Wednesday at 8:30 AM
- PPI numbers scheduled for Thursday at 8:30 AM
These reports will take the spotlight, and heightened volatility is expected throughout the week.
- Prioritize high-probability setups that align with a higher timeframe draw on liquidity.
- Execute trades at key time of the day to ensure optimal positioning.
- Manage risk effectively to navigate the expected volatility.
Please note that this is not financial advice.
Monday:
Given that today is the first trading day of the week following a large range week on the us dollar, patience and managed expectations are crucial. With no major economic news expected to inject volatility, traders should look for opportunities pre-market if the market structure presents a high-probability setup. I recommend focusing on identifying the most probable higher time-frame draw on liquidity during the Opening Range (9:30-10:00 AM) and 10:00 AM Silver Bullet capitalizing on the volatility near the 9:30 opening bell.
Tuesday:
The AM session presents a high-impact news driver scheduled for 10:00 AM, expected to inject volatility into the markets. With CPI data set to release tomorrow, managing expectations is key.
Focusing on either the pre-market session (7:00–8:00 AM), macro time windows, and the opening range (9:30–10:00 AM) for low risk setups is ideal on a day we expect the AM to be more difficult. The PM session is best avoided to protect capital, as price is likely to deliver lower-probability, high-resistance ahead of Wednesday’s CPI release.
Wednesday:
This day brings the anticipation of the CPI numbers at 8:30 AM, which is expected to inject significant volatility into the market following the news release. While we typically avoid trading ahead of high-impact news driver, the post-news release reveals liquidity and inefficiencies that can be capitalized on as a draw. Focus on the AM Session beginning at 9:30 and the PM session for higher probability trade setups.
Thursday:
Expect heightened volatility in the AM session due to multiple key high-impact news drivers scheduled at 8:30 AM. Focus on identifying the most probable higher-timeframe draw on liquidity post-news release, or alternatively, wait for the 10 AM Silver Bullet window to frame low-risk, high-probability setups.
Friday:
High-impact news drivers scheduled for 10:00 AM are expected to inject volatility into the marketplace.If you haven’t met your weekly profit objectives, focus on the AM session starting at 9:30, leading into the Silver Bullet hour, and the PM session for higher-probability trade setups.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders: anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week revolves around earnings reports from several major large-cap institutions. Key releases to watch include:
- Oracle
- Dick’s Sporting Goods
- Casey’s
- UiPath
- Dollar General
- DocuSign
- Ferguson
- Rubrik
These reports are expected to inject significant market volatility, with a likelihood of consolidation leading up to the announcements—especially given the diverse range of sectors represented.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The Previous Week in Review
As expected, given the fundamental positioning and data, supported by institutional order flow, the US dollar tanked heavily last week, delivering discount targets with speed and taking out fund-level sell stops below market price.
We remain heavy into the new week until proven otherwise by either a lower timeframe market structure shift or a higher timeframe market structure break.
Institutional Positioning & Commercials
The commercials are feasting right now as their built-up short positions in a premium of the range are beginning to reflect in the large, one-sided candles seen on both the daily and weekly charts. They remain heavily bearish for yet another week, adding more shorts to their already significant positions.
This further confirms institutional intent to drive the US dollar lower in the near to longer term.
Barring any shift in institutional order flow, the technical-fundamental correlation remains intact, making this high-probability. As a result, further weakness should be expected in line with commercial data—until proven otherwise.
What does this signify for us as traders?
Every retracement into a imbalance becomes an institutional reference point for smart money to accumulate new short positions.
Going into the new week, we remain bearish, with 103.30 and 102.25 as intermediate downside targets we want to see delivered.
Seasonal Tendencies
The US Dollar
As expected, the daily FVG we were watching into the previous week has priced in the intermediate-term high needed for an explosive downside move on the US dollar, in line with seasonal data.
This confirmation within institutional order flow gives confidence in expecting a strong price swing throughout March into April. The ranges are only just beginning to expand, with low-resistance repricing into discount targets anticipated in the weeks ahead and beyond.
All fundamentals point lower, fully supported by technicals, making for a strong bearish case and a heavy month for the US dollar.
We remain heavily bearish, and I expect another large-range week as we move into the new week once again.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wisely.
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
