This Week’s Economic Calendar
Following a consolidation, an expansion market profile is to be expected, which was seen on the indices in the previous week, breaking out of the prolonged beginning-of-year accumulation range. This expansion delivered discount targets beautifully.
Into March, we can expect larger, low-resistance daily candles, creating intra-day opportunities for low-risk setups that align with the higher timeframe draw—allowing us to get in and capitalize on.
Important Notice:
The Daylight Savings shift will take place on Sunday, March 9, 2025. Kindly take note of the time changes to avoid confusion in trade setups and positioning.
Looking Ahead:
This week is data-heavy, with the NFP numbers scheduled for Friday at 8:30 AM and Powell’s speech at 12:30 PM taking the spotlight. Expect heightened volatility throughout the week.
- Prioritize high-probability setups that align with a higher timeframe draw on liquidity.
- Execute trades at key time of day, ensuring optimal positioning.
- Manage risk effectively to navigate the expected volatility.
Please note that this is not financial advice.
Monday:
Given that it’s the first day of NFP week, combined with the first trading week of the month and a Monday, patience and managed expectations are key. A medium and high impact news driver scheduled at 9:45 and 10:00 AM respectively is expected to inject volatility, providing price runs to algorithmic reference points at this time. The recommendation is to observe the opening range and then focus on identifying the most probable higher time-frame draw on liquidity during the 10:00 AM silver bullet.
Tuesday:
With no significant economic news driver on the second most probable trading day before the NFP release, expectations are being managed accordingly. I recommend looking for opportunities pre-market if the market structure suggests its high-probability, or during the Opening Range (9:30-10:00 AM)—focusing on identifying the most probable higher-timeframe draw on liquidity and capitalizing on the volatility near the 9:30 opening bell for higher-probability trades, if a setup presents itself.
Wednesday:
Volatility injections are anticipated in the AM session between 8:15 and 10:30 AM, coinciding with the Silver Bullet distribution hour, facilitated by multiple red and medium folder news drivers expected to inject volatility. This will likely provide easy price runs to algorithmic reference points, presenting optimal trading opportunities. Traders are advised to focus on the 10 AM Silver Bullet and conclude their trading day by 12 noon to protect capital in lower probability high resistance price delivery in anticipation of the NFP numbers on Friday.
Thursday:
Highlighted as the day before the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, where we can expect price to deliver within the context of high resistance and low probability trading conditions. Traders are advised to exercise caution and recognize that it’s a lower probability trading day, particularly if they lack experience.
Friday:
Marked by the anticipation of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) numbers, there is an expectation of heightened volatility in the markets following the release of this high-impact news driver; However, with Powell scheduled to speak at 12:30 PM, a consolidation profile leading up to his speech is likely. During his address, increased volatility and erratic whipsaws may occur.
For those experienced enough to handle increased volatility, consideration can be given to looking for opportunities during the Opening Range (9:30-10:00 AM), focusing on identifying the most probable higher-time frame draw on liquidity if a setup presents itself given the NFP volatility, or instead focus on the PM session.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders: anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week revolves around earnings reports from several major large-cap institutions. Key releases to watch include GitLab, Target, Sea, CrowdStrike, Box, Marvell, Kroger, Macy’s, Costco, and Broadcom. These reports are expected to inject significant market volatility, with a likelihood of consolidation leading up to the announcements—especially given the diverse range of sectors represented.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The Previous Week in Review
The previous week on the US dollar saw discount targets delivered, followed by a sharp retracement back into the range on Thursday and Friday, closing out the week. How we trade inside this range and at premium PD arrays will offer further insights into the next directional price run.
The commercials remain heavily bearish for yet another week, adding more shorts to their already significant positions. This confirms the willingness and intent of institutional players to see the US dollar decline in the near to longer term. Barring any shift in institutional order flow, the technical-fundamental correlation remains intact, making this high-probability. As a result, further weakness should be expected in line with commercial data—until proven otherwise.
What does this signify for us as traders?
The February 13th daily FVG remains a key PD array in determining what’s next for the US dollar. How price trades at that level into the week & post-NFP will provide further insights on how to capitalize on the next expansion leg. Barring any break in market structure, we remain bearish until proven otherwise.
Seasonal Tendencies
The US Dollar
The month of March is finally here, and on the seasonal charts, it historically marks a strongly bearish month for the US dollar—if confirmed by institutional order flow through the pricing in of an intermediate-term high, followed by an energetic displacement lower.
Fundamentals point lower, but confirmation must come from institutional order flow, which we will carefully assess post-NFP. The key focus will be on how price trades inside the daily FVG, as this will provide further insights into the next potential explosive price swing.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wisely.
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
