This Week’s Economic Calendar
Over $927 billion was wiped off the U.S. stock market on Friday in a classic sell-day, delivering discount targets and pulling us back into the higher timeframe consolidation range we’ve been in for most of 2025. This serves as a gentle reminder for traders to manage expectations accordingly: when the higher timeframes consolidate, the lower timeframes follow suit—price is fractal. In other words, a consolidating higher timeframe is likely to create slightly more challenging delivery on intraday charts, as we’ve seen in the indices so far with the high resistance liquidity runs to targets.
Looking Ahead:
This week is data-heavy, with the spotlight on unemployment claims on Thursday at 8:30 AM. Expect heightened volatility around these news events, and be ready to capitalize on high-probability opportunities that emerge at time of day within a higher timeframe draw.
Please note that this is not financial advice.
Monday:
Given that it’s the first day of the week following a large-range week on the U.S. indices, the last trading week of the month, and it’s a Monday, patience and managed expectations are key. With no major economic news expected to inject volatility, traders should look for pre-market opportunities if the market structure presents a high-probability setup.I recommend focusing on identifying the most probable higher timeframe draw on liquidity during the Opening Range (9:30–10:00 AM) and capitalizing on the volatility near the 9:30 opening bell into the 10:00 AM Silver Bullet.
Tuesday:
Expect heightened volatility in the AM session due to the high impact news drivers scheduled for 10 AM, coinciding with the silver bullet hour. Both the AM and PM sessions are expected to present low-risk, high-probability opportunities.
Wednesday:
Volatility injections are anticipated in the AM session between 10:00 and 10:30 AM, coinciding with the Silver Bullet distribution hour. This is supported by medium-impact news drivers expected to inject volatility, creating optimal trading opportunities. Focus on the 10 AM Silver Bullet distribution hour and the PM session for higher probability trade setups.
Thursday:
Expect heightened volatility in the AM session due to multiple key, high- and medium-impact news drivers scheduled between 8:30 and 10:00 AM. Focus on identifying the most probable higher timeframe draw on liquidity following the news release, or alternatively, wait for the 10:00 AM Silver Bullet window to frame low-risk, high-probability setups.
Friday:
A red and medium-impact news driver is scheduled for 8:30 and 9:45 AM respectively, which is expected to inject volatility into the market. If you haven’t met your weekly profit objectives, focus on the AM session starting at 9:30 and the PM session for higher probability trade setups.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders: anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week revolves around earnings reports from several major large-cap institutions. Key releases to watch include Zoom, Domino’s Pizza, Home Depot, AMC, Nvidia, C3 AI, Salesforce, Dell, and Intuit. These reports are expected to inject significant market volatility, with a likelihood of consolidation leading up to the announcements—especially given the diverse range of sectors represented.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The Previous Week in Review
Interest rates, as a leading indicator for the US dollar, closed heavy last week, which was reflected in a down close weekly candle for the US dollar itself, cementing the transition from a buy to a sell program—confirmed by a break of structure within institutional order flow. Moving into the new week, the US dollar remains heavily bearish, and heavy acceleration to the downside are expected.
The commercials remain heavily bearish for yet another week, adding more shorts to their already significant positions. This confirms the willingness and intention of institutional players to see the US dollar decline in the near to longer term. The technical-fundamental correlation also makes this a high-probability price run, and as a result further weakness should be expected.
What does this signify for us as traders?
Retracements become an opportunity for smart money to accumulate further short positions in addition to their existing ones. With the 105.45 and 104.4 levels serving as intermediate to longer-term targets, the US dollar is expected to draw into these targets with speed.
Seasonal Tendencies
The US Dollar
As we welcome the month of March and bid farewell to February, one thing stands out: seasonal data indicates significant weakness in the US dollar, which is expected to reprice heavily into discount targets all the way into April.
This, combined with ongoing bearish market structure, fundamentals, interest rates, and the time of year, creates a lethal, high-probability projection. The US dollar remains extremely weak, and large ranges should be expected into the new week and beyond.
We are bearish!
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wisely.
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
