This Week’s Economic Calendar
Rising interest rates have translated into a stronger US dollar, as evidenced by over 12 weeks of continuous upward repricing, targeting fund level stops above market price in a premium.
With our understanding of inter-market analysis, strength in the US dollar leads to weakness in correlated assets, especially the indices, which have experienced strong, one-sided displacements to the downside. For yet another week, we’ve delivered into a discount, a complete market-maker sell model within a sell program.
Given the current institutional order flow (IOF) from a top-down perspective, we remain aligned trusting bullish models on the US dollar into the new week and expect further strength in the near term, unless a break in structure to the downside proves otherwise.
Looking Ahead:
This week is data-heavy, with the spotlight on CPI numbers set for release on Wednesday at 8:30 AM. Expect heightened volatility around these news releases, and look to capitalize on high-probability opportunities that presents themselves into a higher time frame draw.
Please note that this is not financial advice.
Monday:
Given that today is the first trading day post-NFP and follows a large weekly range on the indices, patience and managed expectations are crucial. With no major economic news expected to inject volatility, traders should look for opportunities pre-market if the market structure presents a high-probability setup. I recommend focusing on identifying the most probable higher time-frame draw on liquidity during the Opening Range (9:30-10:00 AM) and 10:00 AM Silver Bullet capitalizing on the volatility near the 9:30 opening bell.
Tuesday:
The AM session presents a high-impact news driver scheduled for 8:30 AM, expected to inject volatility into the markets. With CPI data set to release tomorrow, managing expectations is key.
Focus on the pre-market session (7:00–8:00 AM), macro time windows, and the opening range (9:30–10:00 AM) for low risk setups is ideal on a day we expect the AM to be more difficult. The PM session is best avoided to protect capital, as price is likely to deliver lower-probability, high-resistance ahead of Wednesday’s CPI release.
Wednesday:
This day brings the anticipation of the CPI numbers at 8:30 AM, which is expected to inject significant volatility into the market following the news release. While we typically avoid trading ahead of high-impact news driver, the post-news release reveals liquidity and inefficiencies that can be capitalized on as a draw. Focus on the AM Session beginning at 9:30 and the PM session for higher probability trade setups.
Thursday:
Expect heightened volatility in the AM session due to multiple key high impact news drivers scheduled at 8:30 AM. Focus on identifying the most probable higher time-frame draw on liquidity post-news release or, alternatively, wait for the 10 AM Silver Bullet window to frame low risk, high probability setups.
Friday:
A medium-impact news driver are scheduled for 8:30 AM is expected to inject volatility into the market. If you haven’t met your weekly profit objectives, focus on identifying the most probable higher time frame draw on liquidity post-news release or, alternatively during the 10:00 AM Silver Bullet window and the PM session, should a suitable setup present itself.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders: anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week centers on earnings reports from major large-cap institutions, includingCitibank, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, UnitedHealth Group, Infosys, and SLB.. These key players are expected to drive heightened market volatility, with potential consolidation likely, leading up to their report releases.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The Previous Week in Review
The US dollar, for yet another week, has delivered premium targets above market price, supported by institutional order flow. It continues to preserve intermediate-term lows, confirming the validity of an ongoing buy program. This bullish structure is expected to persist into the new week unless a break in market structure communicate otherwise.
Meanwhile, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report remains disorganized and delayed, impacted by recent holidays. This lack of timely release has left traders without a clear road-map on the critical footprints of commercial activity. On a broader scale, this can be seen as a strategic form of market manipulation by smart money and deep-pocketed funds. Until further data clarifies commercial positioning, we’re operating in a space of reduced transparency.
What does this signify for us as traders?
With limited fundamental data from commercials, we’ll maintain our reliance on institutional order flow and top-down analysis. Price action will serve as our primary guide, enabling us to extract actionable insights in the absence of comprehensive COT data. Staying nimble and adaptable is key.
Seasonal Tendencies
The US Dollar
The US dollar remains heavily bullish, reinforcing confidence in our buy models within a buy program. We anticipate smart money distribution into fund-level stops above the current market price.
While seasonal tendencies are a valuable tool for timing trends, they are not standalone indicators. They must be confirmed by institutional order flow and intermarket analysis to be actionable. At present, however, the market defies seasonal expectations of a range-bound dollar, maintaining its strong bullish momentum.
For yet another week, technical analysis—anchored in institutional order flow and top-down methods—will be our primary framework for decision-making. This approach offers consistent clarity, even when fundamental and technical correlations diverge.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wisely.
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
