This Week’s Economic Calendar
Geopolitical shifts, a new government, emerging voices, and fresh laws are all leaving their mark on the American indexes. The early trading days of 2025 have been anything but routine—manual inversions are up, consolidation ranges are wider, and intra-day high-resistance price delivery is front and center.
This is a powerful reminder to manage your expectations: dial back your risk, trade less frequently, and focus on short-term scalping into intra-day liquidity until normal, low-resistance trading resumes. Otherwise, you risk handing your hard-earned profits and capital right back to the market.
Looking Ahead:
This week is data-heavy, with the spotlight on unemployment claims on Thursday at 8:30 AM. Expect heightened volatility around these news events, and look to capitalize on high-probability opportunities that present themselves within a higher time-frame draw.
Please note that this is not financial advice.
Monday:
Bank holiday – Low volatility, avoid trading
Tuesday:
The AM session following a bank holiday often presents challenges, identified by consolidation and high-resistance price runs into liquidity and inefficiencies. To navigate this, focusing on the pre-market session (7–8 AM EST) and the key 20-minute macro windows) and observing the opening range (9:30 -10 AM) is ideal on a day we expect the AM to be more difficult for low risk setups.
Wednesday:
Heightened market volatility is expected in the PM session, driven by the FOMC meeting minutes release at 2:00 PM likely leading to consolidation ahead of the event. During the event, there may be periods of heightened volatility and whipsaws in the market. Traders, especially those with less experience, should manage expectations carefully. Focusing on the pre-market session for low risk setups and observing the opening range is ideal on a day we expect the AM to be more difficult. For those experienced enough to handle increased volatility, consider setups post-2:30 PM after the FOMC event.
Thursday:
Expect heightened market volatility between 8:30 AM and 12-noon due to the impact of Red and medium-folder news drivers expected to hit the markets into AM session. Traders are advised to focus on identifying the most probable higher time-frame draw on liquidity post-news release or alternatively the AM Session beginning at 9:30 and the PM session for higher probability trade setups.
Friday:
Red and medium-impact news drivers are scheduled for 9:45 and 10:00 AM, respectively, coinciding with the Silver Bullet distribution hour. If you haven’t met your weekly profit objectives, shift your focus to identifying the most probable higher time frame draw on liquidity during the 10 AM Silver Bullet window or the PM session, should a suitable setup present itself.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders: anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week will focus on earnings reports from major large-cap institutions—Unisys, Fiver, Alibaba, Walmart, Unity/Dropbox, and Conagra. These key players are expected to drive heightened market volatility, with potential consolidation leading up to their report releases.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The Previous Week in Review
Last week, we saw a decisive rejection of premium levels as the US dollar quickly repriced into discount targets—a move echoed across inter-correlated assets. This sets the stage for continued weakness into the new week, with 105.4 on the horizon following smart money accumulation in a premium of the range.
Meanwhile, commercials, our leading indicators of market direction, maintained their short positions into the new week, adding more hedges over the past week. This steadfast positioning confirms their expectation of a weaker dollar. The technical-fundamental gap—evident in the smart money accumulation—was further validated by a decisive acceleration lower on the charts, reinforcing bearish order flow.
What does this signify for us as traders?
Smart money has taken advantage of the premium and new highs to build short positions, in line with the commercial data. As a result, we can expect a weaker dollar heading into the new week, potentially with a gap down. Near-term, watch for interim lower targets at 105.4 and 104.75 to be delivered.
Seasonal Tendencies
The US Dollar
February is typically a bullish month for the US dollar, setting the stage for a Q1 rally. However, this year has defied all seasonal expectations—proving that institutional order flow is key in confirming or negating fundamental data to derive actionable insights. While macro data takes time to manifest on the charts, we’ve seen a decisive break of structure to the downside.
As a result, the US dollar is confirmed bearish, and lower prices are anticipated until further notice.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wisely.
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
