This Week’s Economic Calendar
The just-concluded week was characterized by an expansion into new all-time highs on the indexes, particularly the NASDAQ and S&P, closing the weekly candle bullish for several consecutive weeks. This serves as a continuous reminder of the focus on buy models at all-time highs until a significant break in structure is observed. However, decoupled markets on the daily and weekly charts between the indices can be a precursor of smart money accumulation in the longer term, with special attention paid to premium targets moving forward to constitute a smart money reversal.
Seasonality, on the other hand, indicates a bullish month for the US dollar, confirmed by the prevailing price action. We will continue to trust institutional order flow bullish until a notable change is observed moving forward.
Please note that this is not financial advice.*
Monday:
This day presents significant a news driver, following an expansion on Friday on the US dollar confirmed across all other assets. The release of the Red folder news, expected by 8:30 am, is poised to inject volatility into the markets shortly thereafter. Identifying the most probable higher time frame draw on liquidity post-news release, or alternatively awaiting the 10 am Silver Bullet, is likely to present optimal trading opportunities.
Tuesday:
Expect heightened market volatility between 8:30 AM and 9:15 AM due to the influence of multiple scheduled news drivers. Anticipate optimal trading opportunities throughout the day, encompassing the AM and PM sessions.
Wednesday:
Bank holiday – Low volatility, avoid trading.
Thursday:
Days following a bank holiday can be challenging.The release of the Red folder news, expected by 8:30 am, is poised to inject volatility into the markets shortly thereafter. Identifying the most probable higher time frame draw on liquidity post-news release, or alternatively awaiting the 10 am Silver Bullet, is likely to present optimal trading opportunities.
Friday:
Between 9:45 AM and 10 AM, several news drivers are scheduled. If your weekly profit objectives have not been met, it’s advisable to redirect your focus toward identifying the most probable higher timeframe draw on liquidity between the 10-11 am silver bullet and PM session.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders to anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week revolves around earnings reports, with several large-cap institutions scheduled to release theirs. Traders should expect volatility and potential consolidation ahead of these reports.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
In the just-concluded week, the US dollar closed once again on a strong bullish note, displacing away from the equilibrium of the weekly trading range. We also found support at the 12/04/2023 Weekly breaker and rallied into premium targets. Further upward repricing, supported by key discount PD arrays, indicates a bullish outlook for the dollar in the longer term.
Analysis of the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, focusing on commercials engaged in hedging activities, reveals that commercials maintain a net long position. The data released on Friday reaffirms that commercial entities, including institutions and hedgers, continue to hold more long than short positions in the market, indicating anticipation of higher prices in the longer term.
What does this signify for us as traders? The commercials remain bullish, as we emphasized in previous weeks, and reaffirm in today’s write-up. Until proven otherwise by prevailing price action on the technical charts, our focus remains on a bullish dollar with our draw on liquidity being premium targets above market price going into the new week. Emphasis is placed on reading order flow to either support or nullify this commercial bullish bias.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wiseley
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
