This Week’s Economic Calendar
The previous week saw the indexes, particularly the NASDAQ and S&P, creating new all-time highs following an expansion out of their respective discount, confirming the initial protraction lower to be a Judas swing. This signifies that the peak is yet to come and serves as a reminder of the strict reliance on buy models at all-time highs until they prove ineffective. Seasonality, on the other hand, indicates a bearish month for the US dollar, confirmed by the prevailing price action. We will continue to trust institutional order flow bearishness until a notable change is observed moving forward.
Please note that this is not financial advice.*
Monday:
With the FOMC Chair speaking, Sunday’s market open is expected to be volatile, with a high probability of a gap. To manage risk effectively, professional traders are advised to refrain from trading during this period.
Tuesday:
Medium folder drivers are scheduled for 4 AM and 9 AM, respectively, and are expected to inject volatility into the markets. Consequently, the day is anticipated to present optimal trading opportunities. It will be ideal for traders to focus on the 10-11 AM ‘Silver Bullet’ and the PM session for higher probability trades.
Wednesday:
The FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released at 2 PM. While these minutes are less impactful than the main FOMC decisions, traders should prioritize the last hour of trading for higher probability opportunities.
Thursday:
Red and medium folder news drivers are expected to flood the market throughout the AM session, starting as early as 8:30 AM. Traders should anticipate volatility injections that could facilitate smoother trades. Therefore, traders are encouraged to prioritize either the 7-8 AM ‘Silver Bullet,’ the 10 AM ‘Silver Bullet,’ or the PM session for optimal trading opportunities.
Friday:
Red and medium folder news drivers are introduced between 8:30 AM and 10 AM, coinciding with the Silver Bullet hour. If your weekly profit objectives haven’t been met, redirect your focus to identifying the most probable higher time frame draw on liquidity during the 10 to 11 AM Silver Bullet window.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The just-concluded weekly candle closed bearish once more, targeting the sell side as institutional order flow continues to seek discount targets. Analysis of the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, with a particular emphasis on commercials involved in hedging activities, indicates that commercials maintain a net long position. This data reaffirms that commercial entities, including institutions and hedgers, continue to hold more long positions than short positions in the market, with no significant changes observed. This discrepancy between the technicals and fundamentals arises.
What does this signify for us as traders? The commercials we track in the Commitment of Traders report still maintain a net long position, despite order flow on the technicals suggesting otherwise, coupled with bearish price action on the charts in recent weeks. This discrepancy serves as an early indication of smart money accumulation for the longer term.
If we are to remain bullish, given the commercials’ position, this must also be confirmed on the charts with discount PD arrays lending support for price moving forward. As of now, we will continue to rely on order flow and price action trading in line with the established order flow until correlation returns between fundamentals and technicals.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wiseley
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
