This Week’s Economic Calendar
The previous week witnessed a bullish closure of the weekly candle on the Nasdaq for the second consecutive week, indicating that the all-time high may not have been fully priced in yet. We anticipate continued orderflow trading in alignment with the underlying direction until proven otherwise.On the other hand, the US dollar closed within the weekly range without establishing any significant swing high or low. Emphasis remains on awaiting a displacement from the range to provide further clarity.
The new week brings forth important reports, with CPI numbers on Wednesday taking the spotlight, emphasizing the need for meticulous trading and tight risk management.
Please note that this is not financial advice.*
Monday:
Today, there are no significant news drivers, following Friday’s expansion on the indexes toward anticipated targets. Given that it’s Monday, exercising patience and managing expectations is crucial. The recommendation is to wait for the 9:30 opening and then focus on identifying the most probable higher timeframe draw on liquidity around the 10-11 am ‘silver bullet’.
Tuesday:
Red folder news drivers are expected to flood the market in the AM session, starting as early as 8:30 AM. These news events will likely inject volatility into the markets. However, it’s important to note that Fed Chair Powell will be speaking by 10 am, potentially leading to consolidations leading up to his speech. During his speech, there may be increased volatility and erratic whipsaws. Traders are advised to heavily manage their expectations as this is also the day preceding CPI, where we tend to experience high resistance runs and lower probability setups.
Wednesday:
This day brings the anticipation of CPI numbers. Following the news release, we anticipate a surge in market volatility, potentially offering favorable trading opportunities. While we typically avoid trading before high-impact news events, we can assess liquidity and inefficiencies afterward, which present themselves as a draw. Consider focusing on the 10-11 AM Silver Bullet or the PM session for higher probability trades.
Thursday:
Expect heightened market volatility between 8:30 AM and 9:15 AM due to the influence of multiple scheduled news drivers. Anticipate optimal trading opportunities throughout the day, encompassing the AM and PM sessions.
Friday:
FOMC member speaks at 10:15 am, coinciding with the Silver Bullet hour. If your weekly profit objectives haven’t been met, redirect your focus to identifying the most probable higher time frame draw on liquidity during the 10 to 11 AM Silver Bullet window,if you find your setup, or preferably trade the PM session.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The previous week witnessed a narrow range closing as an inside week following a large range week. Focus still remains on seeing an expansion out of the weekly range if we are to remain bullish. An analysis of the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, with a focus on commercials engaged in hedging activities, indicates that commercials maintain a hedging long position. The data released on Friday reaffirms this stance once more, consistent with previous weeks, showing that commercial entities, including institutions and hedgers, continue to hedge long in the market. This is yet another confirmation of an anticipation of higher prices in the longer term, a trend observable as the weeks progress.
What does this signify for us as traders? The commercials remain bullish, as we called out in previous weeks, and reinforce it again in today’s write-up. Until proven otherwise by prevailing price action on the technical charts, higher prices continue to remain our targets going into the new week. Emphasis on reading order flow to either support or nullify this commercial bullish bias.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wiseley
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
