This Week’s Economic Calendar
The previous week saw the US dollar breaking out of the tight ranges it had been in, displacing to the downside and closing out the week bearish. On the other hand, the indexes, particularly the NASDAQ, was unable to get a rejection off the weekly FVG C.E., closing the week bullish. This finally provided the much-anticipated clarity as discussed in the previous Sunday live stream.
The new week brings forth light reports, with unemployment claims on Thursday taking the spotlight. While this is a relatively light week in terms of news drivers, emphasis remains on the need for meticulous trading and tight risk management.
Please note that this is not financial advice.*
Monday:
This day lacks any significant news drivers, following an expansion on Friday on the US dollar confirmed across all other assets. Coupled with it being a Monday, it’s crucial to exercise patience and manage expectations. The recommendation is to wait for the 9:30 opening and then focus on identifying the most probable higher timeframe draw on liquidity around the 10-11 am silver bullet.
Tuesday:
This is a day with no significant news drivers present. We continue to follow the protocols outlined on Monday, which involve waiting for the opening range and then directing our attention to identifying the most probable higher time frame draw on liquidity in the 10 am Silver Bullet and PM Session.
Wednesday:
This day introduces a medium folder news driver in the PM session, with no news driver in the AM session, making for a relatively easy trading session. Prioritize the 10-11 am, 2-3 pm Silver Bullet, or last hour of trading for higher probability trades.
Thursday:
Red folder news drivers are present both in the AM and PM sessions. Expect increased volatility in the market, which could potentially lead to smoother trades due to the heightened volatility. For higher probability trades, consider focusing on the 10-11 AM Silver Bullet hour or the PM session.
Friday:
Red and medium folder news drivers are expected to be released by 10 am, coinciding with the Silver Bullet hour. If your weekly profit objectives have not been met, it’s advisable to redirect your focus toward identifying the most probable higher timeframe draw on liquidity between the 10-11 am Silver Bullet and PM session.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders to anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week revolves around earnings reports, with several large-cap institutions scheduled to release theirs. Traders should expect volatility and potential consolidation ahead of these reports.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The just concluded weekly candle closed bearish while respecting the weekly fair value gap C.E. This is a retracement into a logical discount after following an expansion higher. Analysis of the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, with a particular emphasis on commercials involved in hedging activities, indicates that commercials maintain a net long position. This data reaffirms that commercial entities, including institutions and hedgers, continue to hold more long positions than short positions in the market, with no significant changes observed. This discrepancy between the technicals and fundamentals arises.
What does this signify for us as traders? The commercials we track in the Commitment of Traders report still maintain a net long position, despite order flow on the technicals suggesting otherwise, coupled with bearish price action on the charts. This discrepancy serves as an early indication of smart money accumulation. If we are to remain bullish, as the commercials have made their position known, this has to also be confirmed on the charts with discount PD arrays lending support for price moving forward. We will continue to rely on order flow and price action until correlation returns between fundamentals and technicals.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wiseley
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
