This Week’s Economic Calendar
The recently-concluded week once again demonstrated continued institutional sponsorship evident since the beginning of March into April, with the US dollar delivering within the context of low resistance liquidity runs towards our higher timeframe targets. The indexes, on the other hand, remained within the range they have been in, providing low resistance liquidity runs towards intra-day targets. Throughout 2024 we have been trusting buy models at all-time highs, however, as of recent we have seen weakness signatures on the higher timeframe and a SMT at the daily highs. We will anticipate weakness signatures into the coming week that will constitute a market reversal and confirm we have seen an intermediate-term high moving forward.
The new week brings forth important reports, with Fed Chair Powell speaking on Tuesday taking the spotlight, emphasizing the need for meticulous trading and tight risk management. Lastly, keep in mind that as a result of the escalation of war between Iran and Israel, we will likely see increased volatility in the marketplace.
Please note that this is not financial advice.*
Monday:
This day presents significant news drivers, following an expansion on Friday on the US dollar confirmed across all other assets. The release of the Red folder news, expected by 8:30 am, is poised to inject volatility into the markets shortly thereafter. Identifying the most probable higher time frame draw on liquidity post-news release, or alternatively awaiting the 10 am Silver Bullet, is likely to present optimal trading opportunities.
Tuesday:
Red and medium folder news drivers are expected to flood the market in the AM session, starting as early as 8:30 AM. These news events will likely serve as volatility injections into the markets. However, it’s important to note that Fed Chair Powell will be speaking by 1:15 pm, likely leading to consolidations up to his speech. During his speech, there may be increased volatility and erratic whipsaws. Traders are advised to manage their expectations heavily on this day and focus on the 7-8 AM kill zone or the PM session after 2pm if they have the experience to navigate this day professionally.
Wednesday:
A day without significant news drivers during market hours underscores the importance of patience and managing expectations. The recommended approach is to wait for the 9:30 opening and then identify the most probable higher time frame draw on liquidity, as we would do on a Monday with no news drivers.
Thursday:
Expect heightened market volatility between 8:30 AM and 10 AM due to the influence of multiple scheduled news drivers. Anticipate optimal trading opportunities throughout the day, encompassing the AM and PM sessions.
Friday:
With no news drivers scheduled for the day, if your weekly profit objectives have not been met, it’s advisable to redirect your focus toward identifying the most probable higher timeframe draw on liquidity after the 9:30 opening and the PM session.
Earnings Spotlight: Major Corporate Reports Unveiling This Week – Key Insights for Investors
Earnings Reports Impact: A gentle reminder to fellow traders, anticipate significant price movements surrounding earnings reports in large-cap companies. This period often presents strategic trading opportunities, capitalizing on heightened volatility for smoother trades.
The upcoming week revolves around earnings reports, with several large-cap institutions scheduled to release theirs. Traders should expect volatility and potential consolidation ahead of these reports.
The Cot Report For The US Dollar
The Commitments of Traders (COT) provide valuable insights into long-term macro price trends. By interpreting the data and drawing informed conclusions, as demonstrated previously, accurately forecasting a dollar reversal before its occurrence becomes apparent. Leveraging this data, I have consistently forecasted its expansion higher with precision, maintaining a systemic approach to get consistent results.
An examination of the Commitments of Traders (COT) report released on Friday, particularly focusing on commercials involved in hedging activities, unveils that these entities uphold a net long position. This noteworthy observation suggests that institutions and hedgers, represented by commercial entities, presently possess more long positions than short positions in the market. This anticipation of sustained higher prices in the longer term has been consistent in previous weeks as a result.
What does this signify for us as traders? For traders, since the commercials flipped bullish, as we indicated, we anticipated a shift in market structure, which was highlighted in March in our Weekly outlook on youtube. The market remains bullish, confirmed by the commercials who are also net long. This bullish sentiment is evident in the charts, with yet another up-close bullish candle taking out buy-side liquidity in the previous week. Moving forward, the focus remains on observing how discount PD arrays support price. As we enter the current week, our outlook remains bullish.
Stay informed for sound decision-making, and always adhere to strict risk management protocols.
Until our next update, trade wiseley
Happy Trading!
Adora Trading Team
